Paper Prepared for the Eleventh Headwaters Conference

November 3-5, 2000

Western State College, Gunnison, Colorado
 

The Gunnison Economy Past and Present:

A Sketch of Changes Towards An

Amenity-Based Regional Economy
 

Prof. Walt Hecox

And

Travis Rummel, Class of 2001

Sustainable Development Workshop

Economics Department

Colorado College, Colorado Springs, Colorado



Introduction

    Gunnison is following the rest of Colorado and vast stretches of the American West as it evolves towards a new type of economy. Once heavily focused upon direct uses of natural resources for products and sources of employment, the Gunnison region is experiencing a major revolution in the role natural resources play. Recreation and tourism depend upon the quality of natural resources just as extractive activities do, but this new "amenity" economy places resources and the environment in a new and unfamiliar role. Locals, visitors and transplants from the rest of the nation enjoy the quality of life in the area while the abundance of open space, public lands, and recreational opportunities generate new sources of "service product" and employment. And yet, agriculture, forestry and mining retain an important role that many consider vital to a balanced economy in the future. The structure and direction of the region’s economy as it continues to evolve will literally determine whether "Gunnison" continues to serve as a synonym for a rural region of open spaces, well-managed resources and superior quality of life.

    Are these changes being experienced in Gunnison and throughout the American West better, desirable, more sustainable than the "old" economy? These are fundamental questions that we all ask as our regions and their resources are caught up in major economic and demographic shifts. The first step in answering these questions is to know more about the evolving structure of the area’s economy. Over several decades major changes in the role of extractive activities, services, manufacturing and government are easy to see. The impacts these changes are having on types of employment, levels of income, property values, and government services need to be understood. A first step is to equip ourselves with information about how the Gunnison economy is evolving and how it compares with trends and magnitudes of the State of Colorado and the nation. This will help us consider whether this "new" economy is desirable, how it should be shaped, and whether it can support the quality of life and superior natural resources and environment that are hallmarks of Gunnison.

    An economic and demographic profile of Gunnison Headwaters Region (Gunnison County, Colorado) has been prepared covering the period 1969-1998. Designed to put key indicators in perspective with Colorado and the US, trends and magnitudes are briefly discussed and shown visually through selected graphs and tables. Drawing upon readily available data from the US Census, Dept. of Commerce’s Regional Economic Information System (REIS) CD-Rom a "sketch" of Gunnison follows. It is built upon county-level data and is intended to give Headwaters Conference attendees a quick overview of the region and its economy. The sketch is also intended to demonstrate the types of readily available data that could be collected and reported on a periodic basis so that trends and magnitudes of the evolving regional economy are charted and publicized.
 

  1. Employment and the Amenity Economy

  2. Similar to the rest of the American West, Gunnison County is going through a "revolution" in the structure of its regional economy. Once heavily dependent upon natural resource-based economic activity, now the role of service-based employment predominates.

    In 1970 Gunnison employment in resource-based sectors (farm, ag services and mining) stood at some 24% of total employment; by 1998 it had declined to 9%. Manufacturing activity in rural areas such as Gunnison has remained minimal but steady over this 28-year period at about 2%. The steady rise in service-based employment, from 75% to 90%, is one indication of dramatic changes underway in Gunnison as well as the rest of the American West.

    Graph A-1


     
     

    Table A-1: Percent Employent by Sector

    County/Reg/Area
    gunnison
    gunnison
    gunnison
    gunnison
    gunnison
    gunnison
    gunnison
    Year
    1970
    1975
    1980
    1985
    1990
    1995
    1998
    A. Resource-Based Employ.
    Total Farm Empl
    11.3%
    6.7%
    5.2%
    5.0%
    3.9%
    2.8%
    3.1%
    Ag Serv Empl
    1.0%
    0.8%
    0.8%
    1.0%
    1.3%
    1.3%
    1.3%
    Mining Empl
    11.6%
    11.3%
    11.4%
    7.9%
    3.0%
    4.6%
    4.5%
    Total Resource-Based Employ.
    23.9%
    18.8%
    17.4%
    13.8%
    8.3%
    8.7%
    8.9%
    B. Manufacturing
    Manuf Empl
    1.5%
    2.0%
    2.8%
    1.9%
    2.2%
    2.3%
    1.8%
    Total Manufacturing Employ.
    1.5%
    2.0%
    2.8%
    1.9%
    2.2%
    2.3%
    1.8%
    C. Service-Based Employ.
    Construct Empl
    3.4%
    4.7%
    7.9%
    9.7%
    7.0%
    8.2%
    9.4%
    Trans/Util Empl
    1.1%
    1.5%
    1.9%
    4.5%
    2.7%
    2.6%
    2.5%
    Whlsl Trade Empl
    0.5%
    1.3%
    1.1%
    0.8%
    0.9%
    1.1%
    0.9%
    Rtl Trade Empl
    19.3%
    21.9%
    20.9%
    21.5%
    25.4%
    24.1%
    24.7%
    Fin Sector Empl
    5.3%
    8.7%
    11.3%
    9.1%
    9.3%
    9.5%
    9.2%
    Services Empl
    16.9%
    19.9%
    21.2%
    22.9%
    27.8%
    28.2%
    27.7%
    Total Gov Empl
    28.1%
    21.1%
    15.5%
    15.9%
    16.5%
    15.3%
    14.8%
    Total Service-Based Employ.
    74.6%
    79.2%
    79.8%
    84.2%
    89.6%
    89.0%
    89.3%
    D. Other Employment NES
    Other Employment NES
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    Total Other Employment NES
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    E. Total Employment
    Total Employment
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    (A + B + C D Above)
    B.  Changing Size and Composition of Gunnison Employment
    Over the past near 3 decades (from 1970 through 1998) total employment in Gunnison has grown almost five-fold, from 2,711 to 10,765. But all types of employment have not shared this growth rate. Within resource-based economic activity farm employment has remained almost steady, growing from 307 to 331, while ag services has experienced substantial growth from 26 to 137. Mining has gone through several cycles of growth and decline, starting at 315 in 1970, peaking at 724 in 1980, declining to 213 in 1990 and rising to 486 in 1998.

    Manufacturing, while growing nearly 5 times, in absolute numbers rose only from 40 to 195.

    Services, where most of the employment growth has occurred, has also seen dramatically different trends between types of service employment. Overall service jobs grew from 2,023 to 9,616 over these 28 years. But the fastest growing service sectors included construction (growing 9 times), transportation/utilities (growing 8 times), wholesale trade (growing 7 times), retail trade (growing 4 times), and financial sector as well as services jobs (both growing near 6 times). Contrary to "folk-wisdom," total government employment over the same 28 years only doubled from 763 to 1,594 jobs.

    Table B-1: Employment Trends by Sector

    County/Reg/Area
    gunnison
    gunnison
    gunnison
    gunnison
    gunnison
    gunnison
    gunnison
    Year
    1970
    1975
    1980
    1985
    1990
    1995
    1998
    A. Resource-Based Employ.
    Total Farm Empl
    307
    273
    329
    317
    273
    269
    331
    Ag Serv Empl
    26
    34
    52
    62
    94
    126
    137
    Mining Empl
    315
    459
    724
    503
    213
    451
    486
    Total Resource-Based Employ.
    648
    766
    1105
    882
    580
    846
    954
    B. Manufacturing
    Manuf Empl
    40
    81
    177
    122
    154
    222
    195
    Total Manufacturing Employ.
    40
    81
    177
    122
    154
    222
    195
    C. Service-Based Employ.
    Construct Empl
    93
    193
    502
    619
    492
    797
    1017
    Trans/Util Empl
    29
    62
    119
    286
    190
    255
    267
    Whlsl Trade Empl
    13
    52
    71
    48
    61
    109
    102
    Rtl Trade Empl
    523
    893
    1325
    1367
    1781
    2343
    2657
    Fin Sector Empl
    145
    354
    714
    578
    654
    922
    992
    Services Empl
    457
    810
    1340
    1457
    1952
    2743
    2987
    Total Gov Empl
    763
    858
    982
    1013
    1160
    1490
    1594
    Total Service-Based Employ.
    2023
    3222
    5053
    5368
    6290
    8659
    9616
    D. Other Employment NES
    Other Employment NES
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    Total Other Employment NES
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    E. Total Employment
    Total Employment
    2711
    4069
    6335
    6372
    7024
    9727
    10765
    C.  Do Gunnison Resource Employment Trends Differ?
    In relative terms Gunnison remains "resource-dependent" both in terms of direct employment in the resource sector and where "nature" generates service sector jobs and promotes migration of people looking for natural amenities as part of their lifestyle.

    While Gunnison resource-based employment has declined over the past near 3 decades, in comparison to the proportion of the same types of employment in Colorado and for the US natural resource jobs remain significant. For Colorado the share of resource-based employment has gradually declined from 7% in 1970 to 4% in 1998, while for the US the change has been from 6% in 1970 to 4% in 1998. Put another way, Gunnison resource-based employment in 1970 was 3.5 times that of Colorado and 4 times that of the US. By 1998 Gunnison’s resource jobs were 2 times those in Colorado and in the US.

    Graph C-1

    D.  The Composition of Service-Based Employment
    One critical dimension of "amenity-based" economies is the growing importance of services as sources of both jobs and products. Gunnison has joined Colorado and the rest of the nation in witnessing a growth of service-based employment. In 1970 Gunnison had 75% of its jobs in services, compared to 81.5% for Colorado and 72.7% for the US. By 1998 Gunnison’s service jobs were near 90% of all jobs, compared to 88% for Colorado and 84% for the US.

    Graph D-1

    But how do the various types of service-based employment in Gunnison stand relative to Colorado and the US? In 1998, the latest data used in this study, a number of service sectors in Gunnison had a larger proportion of total employment than Colorado and the US while in other sectors Gunnison lags Colorado and the nation.

    Gunnison lead both Colorado and the US in service-based employment in total government employment (14.8% in Gunnison versus 13.4% for Colorado and 13.7% in the US), retail trade where the largest margin of difference exists (24.7% in Gunnison versus 17.2% in Colorado and 16.7% in the US) and finally in Construction (9.4% in Gunnison, 6.9% in Colorado, and 5.5% in the US).

    In contrast, Gunnison lagged both Colorado and the US in other sectors: Gunnison lagged behind both Colorado and the US in service-based employment in services (Gunnison 27.7% versus 32.0% Colorado, 31.1% USA), Wholesale trade (.9% Gunnison, 4.2% Colorado, 4.6% USA), and Transportation/Utility employment (2.5% Gunnison, 5.3% Colorado, 4.8% USA).

    One challenge of the "economic development" process is to help shape a balanced economy, where jobs and income are generated from a variety of sectors. A broader way of thinking about the role of natural resources and environment in Gunnison is to consider the ways by which open space, forests, wildlife, and water support both direct resource-based employment and indirect employment through recreation, tourism, and the stimulation of new jobs in the information, technology and service sectors. While current data make it difficult to identify such service sector jobs buoyed by natural amenities, observation and experience support the notion that natural resources and environment remain a key foundation to the Gunnison regional economy.

    Graph D-2


    E.  Income Trends Reflect Amenity Changes Also

    The production of goods and services, according to economists, generates both a demand for "inputs" such as labor, raw materials, energy, etc and a supply of "output" in the form of products used for consumption and as inputs to further production. Thus, production-based employment generates income payments to workers as wages or salaries and benefits. But other "non-work" sources of income exist also, providing recipients additional sources of income to be used for current consumption and savings for future needs.

    Trends in "sources" of income reveal additional information about the transformation of the Gunnison regional economy underway in the past 3 decades.

    Table E-1: Economic Profile Trends by Percentages

    Region
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Year
    1970
    1975
    1980
    1985
    1990
    1995
    1998
    Personal income ($000)
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    Nonfarm personal income ($000)
    94.7%
    94.5%
    97.3%
    100.1%
    98.8%
    100.4%
    100.9%
    + Farm income ($000)
    5.3%
    5.5%
    2.7%
    -0.1%
    1.2%
    -0.4%
    -0.9%
    Derivation of personal income
    Net earnings ($000)
    70.4%
    71.4%
    73.2%
    67.4%
    66.0%
    66.8%
    65.2%
    + Transfer payments ($000)
    8.3%
    10.3%
    7.4%
    8.4%
    9.5%
    9.0%
    8.4%
    Income maintenance ($000)
    0.8%
    0.7%
    0.4%
    0.7%
    0.7%
    0.7%
    0.6%
    Unemploy ins benefit payments ($000)
    0.3%
    0.9%
    0.3%
    0.5%
    0.3%
    0.3%
    0.2%
    Retirement and other ($000)
    7.2%
    8.7%
    6.6%
    7.3%
    8.6%
    8.1%
    7.7%
    + Dividends, interest, and rent ($000)
    21.3%
    18.3%
    19.4%
    24.2%
    24.5%
    24.2%
    26.4%
    = Total Personal Income
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    Population (# of persons) 
    7,705
    9,213
    10,713
    10,126
    10,310
    11,788
    12,425
    Per capita incomes
    Per capita personal income ($)
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    Per capita net earnings ($)
    70.4%
    71.4%
    73.2%
    67.4%
    66.0%
    66.8%
    65.2%
    Per capita transfer payments ($)
    8.3%
    10.3%
    7.4%
    8.4%
    9.5%
    9.0%
    8.4%
    Per capita income maintenance ($)
    0.8%
    0.7%
    0.4%
    0.7%
    0.6%
    0.7%
    0.6%
    Per capita unemploy ins benefits ($)
    0.3%
    0.9%
    0.3%
    0.5%
    0.3%
    0.3%
    0.2%
    Per capita retirement & other ($)
    7.2%
    8.7%
    6.6%
    7.3%
    8.6%
    8.1%
    7.7%
    Per capita dividends, interest, & rent ($)
    21.2%
    18.3%
    19.4%
    24.1%
    24.5%
    24.2%
    26.4%
    Place of work profile
    Total earnings (place of work, $000)
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    Wage and salary disbursements ($000)
    72.1%
    72.6%
    75.5%
    76.2%
    73.7%
    75.1%
    77.0%
    + Other labor income ($000)
    6.3%
    7.9%
    10.0%
    10.2%
    10.6%
    10.6%
    10.6%
    + Proprietors' income ($000)
    21.7%
    19.5%
    14.6%
    13.6%
    15.7%
    14.2%
    12.4%
    Nonfarm proprietors' income ($000)
    19.6%
    15.9%
    13.4%
    14.9%
    14.9%
    15.5%
    14.4%
    Farm proprietors' income ($000
    2.0%
    3.5%
    1.2%
    -1.2%
    0.8%
    -1.3%
    -2.0%
    Total full- and part- time employment
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    Wage and salary jobs
    75.9%
    75.4%
    76.8%
    73.7%
    76.1%
    75.4%
    76.0%
    Number of proprietors
    24.1%
    24.6%
    23.2%
    26.3%
    23.9%
    24.6%
    24.0%
    Number of nonfarm proprietors
    18.0%
    20.7%
    20.8%
    23.6%
    21.7%
    22.6%
    22.2%
    Number of farm proprietors
    6.1%
    3.9%
    2.4%
    2.7%
    2.3%
    1.9%
    1.8%
    Average earnings per job ($)
    $5,639
    $7,766
    $11,453
    $14,514
    $14,868
    $17,617
    $19,454
    Average wage & salary disbursements ($)
    $5,353
    $7,478
    $11,256
    $15,000
    $14,418
    $17,554
    $19,721
    Average nonfarm proprietors' income ($)
    $6,166
    $5,977
    $7,360
    $9,140
    $10,227
    $12,027
    $12,629

    Information on trends in income buttress the evidence shown in employment data that Gunnison is fast approaching a new type of economy, one that both changes the role of natural resources and the environment as a foundation for the economy and makes predominant services as the major form of economic activity.

    The role of farming as a source of income has declined over the past decades and in recent years has resulted in yearly losses (counted as negative income). In 1970 farm income was 5.3% of personal income in Gunnison, while 94.7% came from nonfarm income sources. By 1998 farm losses were nearly 1% of personal income, with nonfarm income standing at 100.9% of personal income.

    Graph E-1

    Total personal income for an individual, family, or region consists of:
                    Net earnings (Salary and wages minus personal contributions to social security)
                    + Transfer Payments
                            income maintenance (often called welfare payments)
                            unemployment benefits
                            retirement
                    + Dividends, interest and rent earnings

    The shares of these sources of personal income have changed substantially since 1970, with "non-work" income sources growing in importance over net earnings from work. In 1970 net earnings were 70.4% of personal income, while transfer payments were 8.3% and dividends, etc. stood at 21.3%. By 1998 net earnings had declined as a share to 65.2%, transfer payments stood at 8.4%, and dividends, etc. rose to 26.4%.

    Graph E-2

    A third way to look at income trends is by "total earnings by place of work"." This reflects both income paid by companies to employ workers and "proprietors" income, usually termed "self-employment." In 1970 some 72% of income was through wage and salary disbursements, 6.3% came from other labor income, and 21.7% consisted of Proprietors’ income (19.6% for nonfarm proprietors and 2% from farm proprietors). By 1998 77% of income came from wages and salaries, 10.6% from other labor income, and only 12.4% from Proprietors’ income (14.4% from for nonfarm proprietors and –2% for farm proprietors).

    Graph E-3


     
     

       F.  Income Trends by Economic Sector
    The decline in resource-based employment and companion growth in service-based employment over 3 decades is mirrored in the income figures for these economic sectors over time. In 1970 resource-based employment stood at 23.9% while resource-based income (as a proportion of total income by place of work) was 27.6%; manufacturing based employment was 1.5% while income for these jobs was 1.1%, and service-based employment stood at 74.6% while income for service workers was 71.3%. By 1998 resource-based employment had dropped to 8.9% while income for these jobs was only 14.3%; manufacturing-based employment stood at 1.8% while income paid was 2.1%; and service-based employment had risen to 89.3% while income paid to these workers had risen to 83.6% of total income by place of work. It is clear that resource-based jobs continue, on average, to pay more than proportionate to the number of employees, while service-based wages are less than proportionate to the number of employees. This validates the intuition of many that the majority of service jobs are low paying.

    Table F-1: Sector Shares of Employment

    County/Reg/Area
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Year
    1970
    1975
    1980
    1985
    1990
    1995
    1998
    Current $ % of Total Income
    Total Pers Inc ($ 000)
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    Nonfarm Inc ($ 000)
    94.7%
    94.5%
    97.3%
    100.1%
    98.8%
    100.4%
    100.6%
    Farm Inc ($ 000)
    5.3%
    5.5%
    2.7%
    -0.1%
    1.2%
    -0.4%
    -0.6%
    Income by Place of Work
    Total Inc/ Plc of Work ($ 000) 
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    Wage/Sal Inc ($ 000)
    72.1%
    72.6%
    75.5%
    76.2%
    73.7%
    75.1%
    76.7%
    + Other Labor Inc ($ 000)
    6.3%
    7.9%
    10.0%
    10.2%
    10.6%
    10.6%
    10.9%
    + Total Prop Inc ($ 000)
    21.7%
    19.5%
    14.6%
    13.6%
    15.7%
    14.2%
    12.4%
    Farm Prop Inc ($ 000)
    2.0%
    3.5%
    1.2%
    -1.2%
    0.8%
    -1.3%
    -1.6%
    Nonfarm Prop Inc ($ 000)
    19.6%
    15.9%
    13.4%
    14.9%
    14.9%
    15.5%
    14.0%
    Earnings by Sector
    A. Resource Based Earnings
    Total Farm Earn ($ 000)
    6.2%
    6.2%
    3.0%
    -0.1%
    1.7%
    -0.5%
    -0.8%
    Ag Serv Earn ($ 000)
    0.6%
    0.5%
    0.3%
    0.5%
    0.6%
    0.6%
    0.6%
    Mining Earn ($ 000)
    20.7%
    23.6%
    26.0%
    20.2%
    7.6%
    14.0%
    14.4%
    Total Resource-Based Earnings ($ 000)
    27.6%
    30.4%
    29.3%
    20.5%
    9.9%
    14.1%
    14.3%
    B. Manufacturing
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    0.0%
    Manuf Earnings
    1.1%
    1.4%
    2.6%
    1.3%
    1.5%
    1.8%
    2.1%
    Total Manufacturing Earnings
    1.1%
    1.4%
    2.6%
    1.3%
    1.5%
    1.8%
    2.1%
    C. Service Based Earnings
    Construct Earn ($ 000)
    5.5%
    5.4%
    9.5%
    12.0%
    8.8%
    11.1%
    9.4%
    Trans/Util Earn ($ 000)
    2.2%
    2.4%
    2.6%
    6.1%
    3.7%
    3.5%
    3.2%
    Whlsl Trade Earn ($ 000)
    0.7%
    2.0%
    1.7%
    1.0%
    1.0%
    1.3%
    1.0%
    Rtl Trade Earn ($ 000)
    15.5%
    14.7%
    13.4%
    14.8%
    15.7%
    15.5%
    15.2%
    Fin Sector Earn ($ 000)
    2.7%
    4.1%
    5.4%
    4.1%
    6.7%
    6.8%
    8.6%
    Services Earn ($ 000)
    12.6%
    12.6%
    14.6%
    17.4%
    24.7%
    21.6%
    22.8%
    Total Gov Earnings ($ 000)
    32.1%
    27.0%
    20.9%
    22.9%
    28.0%
    24.1%
    23.5%
    Total Service Based Earnings ($ 000)
    71.3%
    68.2%
    68.0%
    78.2%
    88.6%
    84.0%
    83.6%
    Total Inc/ Plc of Work (A+B+C) ($ 000)
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    CPI 1970=100

    Graph F-1


     
     

    G.  The Rise of "Non-Work" Sources of Income
    Not only have direct employment opportunities based on natural resources declined over 3 decades, but even the contribution of all "net earnings" from employment have declined. Amenity economies are known for the increasing role of "non-work" sources of income, especially among retirees and "foot-loose" workers with substantial savings assets.

    For Gunnison net earnings as a proportion of total personal income has declined from 70.4% in 1970 to 65.2 % in 1998. Over the same time period the contribution of transfer payments has gone from 8.3% to 8.4%, remaining nearly stable. The significant increase in earnings from dividends, interest and rent assets are reflected in a 21.3% share of personal income in 1970 versus a 26.4% share by 1998.

    Table G-1: Shares of Sector Income

    Region
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Gunnison
    Year
    1970
    1975
    1980
    1985
    1990
    1995
    1998
    Personal income ($000)
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    Nonfarm personal income ($000)
    94.7%
    94.5%
    97.3%
    100.1%
    98.8%
    100.4%
    100.9%
    + Farm income ($000)
    5.3%
    5.5%
    2.7%
    -0.1%
    1.2%
    -0.4%
    -0.9%
    Derivation of personal income
    Net earnings ($000)
    70.4%
    71.4%
    73.2%
    67.4%
    66.0%
    66.8%
    65.2%
    + Transfer payments ($000)
    8.3%
    10.3%
    7.4%
    8.4%
    9.5%
    9.0%
    8.4%
    Income maintenance ($000)
    0.8%
    0.7%
    0.4%
    0.7%
    0.7%
    0.7%
    0.6%
    Unemploy ins benefit payments ($000)
    0.3%
    0.9%
    0.3%
    0.5%
    0.3%
    0.3%
    0.2%
    Retirement and other ($000)
    7.2%
    8.7%
    6.6%
    7.3%
    8.6%
    8.1%
    7.7%
    + Dividends, interest, and rent ($000)
    21.3%
    18.3%
    19.4%
    24.2%
    24.5%
    24.2%
    26.4%
    = Total Personal Income
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    Population (# of persons) 
    7,705
    9,213
    10,713
    10,126
    10,310
    11,788
    12,425
    Per capita incomes
    Per capita personal income ($)
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    Per capita net earnings ($)
    70.4%
    71.4%
    73.2%
    67.4%
    66.0%
    66.8%
    65.2%
    Per capita transfer payments ($)
    8.3%
    10.3%
    7.4%
    8.4%
    9.5%
    9.0%
    8.4%
    Per capita income maintenance ($)
    0.8%
    0.7%
    0.4%
    0.7%
    0.6%
    0.7%
    0.6%
    Per capita unemploy ins benefits ($)
    0.3%
    0.9%
    0.3%
    0.5%
    0.3%
    0.3%
    0.2%
    Per capita retirement & other ($)
    7.2%
    8.7%
    6.6%
    7.3%
    8.6%
    8.1%
    7.7%
    Per capita dividends, interest, & rent ($)
    21.2%
    18.3%
    19.4%
    24.1%
    24.5%
    24.2%
    26.4%
    Place of work profile
    Total earnings (place of work, $000)
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    Wage and salary disbursements ($000)
    72.1%
    72.6%
    75.5%
    76.2%
    73.7%
    75.1%
    77.0%
    + Other labor income ($000)
    6.3%
    7.9%
    10.0%
    10.2%
    10.6%
    10.6%
    10.6%
    + Proprietors' income ($000)
    21.7%
    19.5%
    14.6%
    13.6%
    15.7%
    14.2%
    12.4%
    Nonfarm proprietors' income ($000)
    19.6%
    15.9%
    13.4%
    14.9%
    14.9%
    15.5%
    14.4%
    Farm proprietors' income ($000
    2.0%
    3.5%
    1.2%
    -1.2%
    0.8%
    -1.3%
    -2.0%
    Total full- and part- time employment
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    100.0%
    Wage and salary jobs
    75.9%
    75.4%
    76.8%
    73.7%
    76.1%
    75.4%
    76.0%
    Number of proprietors
    24.1%
    24.6%
    23.2%
    26.3%
    23.9%
    24.6%
    24.0%
    Number of nonfarm proprietors
    18.0%
    20.7%
    20.8%
    23.6%
    21.7%
    22.6%
    22.2%
    Number of farm proprietors
    6.1%
    3.9%
    2.4%
    2.7%
    2.3%
    1.9%
    1.8%
    Average earnings per job ($)
    $5,639
    $7,766
    $11,453
    $14,514
    $14,868
    $17,617
    $19,454
    Average wage & salary disbursements ($)
    $5,353
    $7,478
    $11,256
    $15,000
    $14,418
    $17,554
    $19,721
    Average nonfarm proprietors' income ($)
    $6,166
    $5,977
    $7,360
    $9,140
    $10,227
    $12,027
    $12,629

     

    It is important to look more closely at the composition of the "transfer payments" segment of "non-work" income. Often it is assumed that government "welfare" programs have grown steadily and now maintain individuals and families who do not work. But buried in "transfer payments" is another type of income maintenance program: retirement. As middle-aged and older individuals migrate into "amenity" regions of the American West, their sources of income switch from "work" to "non-employment" retirement transfer payments and earnings from assets.

    For Gunnison this phenomenon is underway. In 1970 .8% of total transfer payments came from income maintenance programs, but by 1998 this share had declined to .6%. Transfer payments in the form of unemployment benefits stood at .3% in 1970, evolving to .2% by 1998. Over the same 3 decades retirement payments went from 7.2% in 1970 to 7.7% by 1998.

    Graph G-2



    H.  The Impacts of Inflation on Income and Earnings

Everyone knows a dollar today is worth less than in the past! The impact of inflation (here measured by the Consumer Price Index) over some 3 decades is substantial. Can we say that we are better off now, in real or inflation-adjusted terms, as compared to earlier "cheaper" years?

One way to look at this question is in terms of "per capita" income and earnings levels. This controls for increases in population, in the case of Gunnison a growth from 7,705 in 1970 to 12,425 in 1998. Over these years per capita personal income in current dollar terms grew from $2,339 to $21,572. But when adjusted for inflation, using constant 1970 dollars, per capita personal income in Gunnison only grew from $2,339 to $5,136.

Table H-1: Per Capita Income Over Time

Region
Gunnison
Gunnison
Gunnison
Gunnison
Gunnison
Gunnison
Gunnison
Year
1970
1974
1980
1985
1990
1995
1998
(Current $)
Per capita incomes
Per capita personal income ($)
$2,339
$3,444
$7,499
$11,023
$13,711
$18,047
$21,572
Per capita net earnings ($)
$1,647
$2,474
$5,491
$7,430
$9,049
$12,049
$14,066
Per capita transfer payments ($)
$194
$303
$556
$931
$1,304
$1,633
$1,819
Per capita income maintenance ($)
$19
$25
$32
$72
$89
$118
$121
Per capita unemploy ins benefits ($)
$7
$8
$26
$52
$42
$48
$39
Per capita retirement & other ($)
$169
$270
$498
$806
$1,173
$1,466
$1,659
Per capita dividends, interest, & rent ($)
$497
$666
$1,452
$2,662
$3,357
$4,366
$5,688
(Constant $1970)
Per capita incomes
Per capita personal income ($)
$2,339
$2,710
$3,531
$3,975
$4,070
$4,592
$5,136
Per capita net earnings ($)
$1,647
$1,947
$2,586
$2,679
$2,686
$3,066
$3,349
Per capita transfer payments ($)
$194
$238
$262
$336
$387
$416
$433
Per capita income maintenance ($)
$19
$20
$15
$26
$26
$30
$29
Per capita unemploy ins benefits ($)
$7
$6
$12
$19
$12
$12
$9
Per capita retirement & other ($)
$169
$212
$234
$291
$348
$373
$395
Per capita dividends, interest, & rent ($)
$497
$524
$684
$960
$997
$1,111
$1,354
% share of Per Capita Income
% share Per capita personal income 
100.0%
147.2%
320.6%
471.3%
586.2%
771.6%
922.3%
% share Per capita net earnings
70.4%
105.8%
234.8%
317.7%
386.9%
515.1%
601.4%
% share Per capita transfer payments 
8.3%
13.0%
23.8%
39.8%
55.8%
69.8%
77.8%
% share Per capita income maintenance
0.8%
1.1%
1.4%
3.1%
3.8%
5.0%
5.2%
% share Per capita unemploy ins benefits 
0.3%
0.3%
1.1%
2.2%
1.8%
2.1%
1.7%
% share Per capita retirement & other 
7.2%
11.5%
21.3%
34.5%
50.1%
62.7%
70.9%
% share Per capita dividends, interest, & rent
21.2%
28.5%
62.1%
113.8%
143.5%
186.7%
243.2%
Graph H-1

The income components making up total personal income are 1) net earnings, 2) transfer payments, and 3) dividends, interest and rent. In 1970 total personal per capita income in current dollars of $2,339 consisted of $1,647 net earnings + $194 total transfer payments + $497 asset earnings (dividends, interest and rent). By 1998, measured in constant 1970 dollars, total personal per capita income of $5,136 consisted of $3,349 net earnings + $433 total transfer payments + $1,354 asset earnings. Clearly the role of "non-work" sources of income has risen over this period, even when adjusted to a per capita basis and for the impacts of inflation.

Graph H-2

I. Gunnison Income Contrasted with Colorado and the US

 
Rural areas usually lag behind urban areas and more developed, industrial regions in levels of income. Often while the cost of living is lower in rural areas, the levels of income are substantially below income levels reflecting these more inexpensive costs. Gunnison again is no exception. Taking 1998 as an example, per capita total personal income stood at $21,572 in Gunnison, $29,994 for Colorado and $27,203 for the US.
Table I-1

 
Gunnison
Colorado
USA
Per Capita:
Current
Constant
Current
Constant
Current
Constant
Net earnings ($000)
$14,066
$3,349
$21,509
$5,121
$18,448
$4,392
+ Transfer payments ($000)
$1,819
$433
$2,796
$666
$3,639
$866
Income maintenance ($000)
$121
$29
$231
$55
$373
$89
Unemploy ins benefit payments ($000)
$39
$9
$38
$9
$75
$18
Retirement and other ($000)
$1,659
$395
$2,527
$602
$3,191
$760
+ Dividends, interest, and rent ($000)
$5,688
$1,354
$5,689
$1,355
$5,115
$1,218
= Total Personal Income
$21,572
$5,136
$29,994
$7,141
$27,202
$6,477
Gunnison Colorado USA
Per Capita: Current Constant Current Constant Current Constant
Net earnings % of Total Personal Income
65.2%
65.2%
71.7%
71.7%
67.8%
67.8%
+ Transfer payments % of Total Personal Income
8.4%
8.4%
9.3%
9.3%
13.4%
13.4%
Income maintenance % of Total Personal Income
0.6%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
1.4%
1.4%
Unemploy ins benefit payments% of Total Personal Income
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
Retirement and other % of Total Personal Income
7.7%
7.7%
8.4%
8.4%
11.7%
11.7%
+ Dividends, interest, and rent % of Total Personal Income
26.4%
26.4%
19.0%
19.0%
18.8%
18.8%
= Total Personal Income
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%

Graph I-1

Net earnings from employment likewise stood lower than levels for Colorado and the US.
Graph I-2
What contributions do the various components of total personal income make in Gunnison, as compared to Colorado and the US? A look at the proportions of net earnings, transfer payments and asset earnings as shares of total personal income reveal that there is a much stronger reliance on dividends, interest, and rent component of total personal income in Gunnison at 26.4% compared to 19.0% in Colorado and 18.8% in the US. Gunnison lags behind both Colorado and the US in transfer payments (8.4% Gunnison, 9.3% Colorado, 13.4% in US), income maintenance (.6% Gunnison, .8% Colorado, 1.4% US), and retirement (7.7% Gunnison, 8.4% Colorado, 11.7% in US) as percentages of total personal income.
 
    J. Conclusions The Gunnison Headwaters region (Gunnison County, Colorado) exhibits all of the "classic" characteristics of a regional economy undergoing the "amenity" revolution. The direct role of natural resource extraction, both in employment and income terms, is dwindling. Services are exploding. The rural character of the area means that manufacturing remains nearly insignificant.

Is this "revolution" beneficial or not? Opinions differ, with some focusing on the "good old days" when natural resource extraction was a larger and very significant proportion of the regional economy, paid "decent" wages, and made obvious the "rural" dimensions of the area. Others believe that the new role of natural resources in an amenity economy are less "exploitative" and damaging to forests, streams, open space, and solitude. But critics of this argue that the spread of new homes, often second properties and sometimes trophy houses of gigantic proportions is like "clear-cutting open space with sub-divisions."

While the controversy and discussion will not abate, data on the magnitudes of the changes occurring in the Gunnison region should assist in a "conversation" about what kind of region and economy residents want and are willing to work towards achieving. Important questions arise in this regard. What should be the role of natural resource "harvesting and extraction" in the future? Can such uses contribute to forest and rangeland health? Where should scarce water resources be directed, within the confines of Colorado water law and the realities of the Gunnison Basin federal water priorities? How can a growing and dominant service sector contribute more to decent wages and necessary fringe benefits? Can open space remain an important "hallmark" of the region even as the "rural" character diminishes?

We have only scratched the surface in identifying this "sketch" of a changing Gunnison economy. But we hope it demonstrates the richness of data available to monitor the health and changing character of this regional economy. Others can extend and improve on this snapshot of a dynamic economy, and assure that residents learn about their circumstances and the changes they are undergoing. Through such steps the regional discussion can be enriched and moved towards actions to achieve a desirable and sustainable level of economic development.